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Vines are now dormant. A wetter than normal season is more likely for most of southeast Australia. Climate influences include a warmer than normal eastern Indian Ocean, a neutral tropical Pacific, and warm local sea surface temperatures. |
BOM Details
The chances of receiving above median rainfall during the winter period are
60 to 70% over most of southeast Australia. Such odds mean that for every
ten years with similar climate patterns to those currently observed, about
six or seven years would be expected to be wetter than average over these
areas, while about three or four years would be drier.
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| Willunga Rainfall Predictions. Winter rainfall is important to flush soils of sodium chloride that has built up over summer irrigation. Click for a larger image. |
Climate influences
The tropical Pacific has remained ENSO-neutral since mid-2012.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to sit on the cool side of neutral
during winter 2013.
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| SEA Rainfall Predictions. |
Four of five international models surveyed by the Bureau favour the
development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event sometime
during winter-spring 2013. A negative IOD during winter-spring
increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southeast
Australia, which is reflected in the rainfall outlook.
Warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures currently surround much
of the continent. Warmer ocean temperatures can provide more moisture
to the atmosphere, which in favourable weather conditions (e.g.,
interactions with fronts or north-west cloudbands) may result in
increased rainfall.
Climatologists will continue to monitor
conditions and outlooks closely for any further developments
over the coming months, with information on
the likelihood of El Niño available fortnightly at the
ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean
outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.
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