June rainfall - Are we on track for a wet winter?

Recent heavy rainfall around Adelaide in South Australia has increased expectations of higher than average rainfall across the region.

The Bureau of Meterology has issued its latest climate update with a positive outlook.

The chance of exceeding the median rainfall for July to September is greater than 60% over mainland southeast Australia. The chance rises to more than 80% over southern NSW and northern Victoria.

Spraywise Decisions likens the weather conditions to be similar to 2004, 1980 and 1978. 

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is favoured to develop during winter-spring 2013. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southeast Australia, which is reflected in the rainfall outlook. 

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures currently surround much of western and southern Australia. Warmer sea surface temperatures  provide more moisture to the atmosphere, which forms more clouds than average, and usually result in increased rainfall across the southeast. 

We are off to a good start! Mild to cool and wet winters followed by warm springs are ideal for grape growth.